Ahead of TVK chief Vijay’s visit, a look at Salem district’s voting pattern

As Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) founder Vijay proposes to visit Salem on Friday (February 13, 2026), here is an analysis of the performance of the State’s principal political forces – the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and the All India Anna Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) – in the district. 

Traditionally known to be a stronghold of the AIADMK, Salem favoured the party in 10 out of its 11 Assembly constituencies, both in the 2016 and 2021 Assembly elections – the outlier being Salem (North). Unlike in 2016, when the AIADMK contested alone in 2016, it faced the 2021 election together with the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

However, during the 2024 Lok Sabha poll, the party saw an erosion of its vote base when it faced the electorate only with the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK), whereas the PMK was a constituent of the BJP-led front. The AIADMK was ahead of its traditional adversary, the DMK, only in two Assembly segments, whereas the latter overtook the former in nine.  

In terms of the average vote share for the district, the AIADMK-led combine netted 50.34% and the DMK-headed front secured 39.34% in 2021. Three years later, the figures of vote share were approximately 37.3% and 42.5%, respectively, while the BJP-led coalition received 10.8%. 

With the return of the BJP and the PMK to the AIADMK fold, the Dravidian major appears to be in an advantageous position, even though the ruling DMK and its allies are planning to do everything to retain the lead that they secured two years ago. The group owing allegiance to the PMK’s founder S. Ramadoss has not yet announced its position on the issue of alliance.

‘Contest between Dravidian majors’

“As far as Salem is concerned, we do not view him [Mr. Vijay] or his party as a force to reckon with,” S. Semmalai, four-time MLA and once an MP from Salem, says, adding that the contest remains between the two Dravidian majors. He expresses confidence that his party will emerge victorious, with its old allies back in the fold.  

A look at the results’ data for 2021 and 2024 reveals that the first two formations garnered around or at least 80% of vote share on both occasions, though due to the conditions prevalent in the previous Assembly election, the combined vote share was approximately 89%. A functionary of the DMK in the district says that as the space for a third force – let alone the TVK – is extremely limited, the chances of Mr. Vijay’s party cutting into the bases of the two parties are dim.  

But the TVK’s claim that it has at least one voter in every family ration card applies to Salem, too, observes the party’s office-bearer. TVK leaders have also repeatedly expressed the hope that “the strength of Mr. Vijay’s appeal” among women and younger generations will do wonders for their prospects in the upcoming polls.