Awami League supporters adrift as Bangladesh heads for polls without ruling party

Seventy-year-old Abu Bakkar has never cast his vote for any symbol other than the Awami League (AL)’s “Boat”. A life-long supporter of the party, he never imagined a national election without it. Yet on February 12, Bangladesh will go to the polls with the Awami League (AL) barred from contesting, following a crackdown after the mass uprising that ousted party president and Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and ended the party’s 15-year rule.

“I have never cast my ballot for any symbol other than the AL’s Boat in my lifetime,” he said. “The party is barred from this election, but I still intend to vote. I don’t know if I will be able to vote in the next election, as I am already old.”

Mr. Bakkar declined to say which party or candidate he would vote for, though he said several candidates had approached him seeking support. “I have not yet decided, but I will go and cast my vote,” he said.

Following the dramatic fall of the Awami League, most of its senior leaders have either fled the country or remain in jail. With the party barred from the election, its traditional vote bank has been left politically adrift. In 2001, the AL won its lowest-ever tally of 62 seats in the 300-member parliament, despite securing more than two crore votes, when the electorate stood at just over seven crore. In the widely regarded free and fair 2008 election, the party won nearly 3.5 crore votes as part of the Grand Alliance, with just over eight crore registered voters. Bangladesh’s current voter base exceeds 12.7 crore.

With the Awami League out of the fray, a large segment of its former supporters remains undecided—a factor that could prove decisive as former allies Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Jamaat-e-Islami contest against each other.

Sources within the Awami League said the party remains uncertain about its election strategy. Although it announced a boycott, there has been little mobilisation on the ground. Grassroots activists said the absence of clear instructions has left supporters confused about whether the party wants the election to proceed and power to transfer from the interim government, which they accuse of carrying out a harsh crackdown over the past 18 months.

A leader of the Bangladesh Chhatra League, the student wing of Awami League, and vice-president of a university unit, who requested anonymity citing fear of reprisal and has seven cases filed against him, told The Hindu from an African country where he has taken refuge that he received no instructions to discourage voting.

“I did not vote by postal ballot while abroad,” he said. “But I also did not tell my family members anything about participating in the election. I did not intervene because my party did not instruct us to obstruct the polls.”

A nationwide survey conducted jointly by the Communication and Research Foundation and Bangladesh Election and Public Opinion Studies found that more than 90% of voters intend to vote in the upcoming election, while around 8% remain undecided. Among those who previously voted for the Awami League, 48.2% said they would now vote for the BNP, and 29.9% favoured Jamaat-e-Islami.

Political analysts say the Awami League currently lacks the organisational strength to prevent the election. Most senior leaders are either jailed or in exile, while those remaining face multiple cases and are disorganised. Analysts also point to the party’s loss of moral authority following the killing of protesters during the July 2024 uprising. However, they note that the party retains significant grassroots support, which could still influence the outcome.

According to Transparency International Bangladesh (TIB), 1,785 cases had been filed nationwide against AL activists and supporters as of November 19, 2025. Sheikh Hasina has been named as an accused in 663 cases, including 453 murder cases. Chargesheets have been submitted in 106 cases, including 31 murder cases, while at least 128 individuals, including former Ministers and MPs, have been arrested. In addition, 761 cases have been filed against police personnel, naming 1,168 officers as accused.

The Awami League has long demanded the dissolution of the interim government and elections under a neutral, all-party administration. With polling only three days away, Sheikh Hasina reiterated her call for a boycott, echoed by five Awami League–aligned professional organisations. However, no large-scale public mobilisation in favour of the boycott or obstruction has been visible.

AFM Bahauddin Nasim, joint general secretary of the Awami League, told The Hindu on Sunday (February 8, 2026) that the party has boycotted the election and instructed its supporters not to vote. He claimed that not only party supporters but also general voters would reject what he described as a “motivated and non-inclusive” election.

Asked whether the party had instructed activists to obstruct polling on February 12, he said the Awami League does not believe in violence. He alleged that BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami activists were pressuring Awami League supporters to attend polling centres. “These elections will not be accepted by the people or the international community,” he said.

Shahadat Shadhin, a political analyst and research scholar at South Asian University, told The Hindu that the absence of Awami League leaders from public life has weakened the party’s control over its supporters.

“Even if the Awami League boycotts the election, many of its supporters will still vote,” he said. He said that their votes are likely to be divided mainly between the BNP and Jamaat. Many citizens expect an elected government to stabilise Bangladesh’s democratic trajectory. For the Awami League too, political engagement may be more feasible with an elected government than with a purely interim arrangement.”

Published – February 08, 2026 07:33 pm IST