In economic speeches, Trump claims inflation victory nearly 20 times even as prices bite

Donald Trump has cast himself as Republicans’ chief messenger on the cost of living in an election year, but a Reuters review of his speeches shows a President repeatedly declaring inflation beaten while rarely acknowledging the strain many Americans say they still feel.

In five speeches on ‍the economy since December, Mr. Trump asserted that inflation had been beaten or was way down almost 20 times and said prices were falling almost 30 times, assertions at odds with economic data and voters’ daily experiences.

Much of the remaining time was spent on grievances and other issues, including immigration, whether Somalia was a country, and attacks on opponents. Taken together, the speeches portray a President struggling to reconcile his central claim — that he has fixed the cost-of-living crisis — with inflation ‌near 3% over the past year and voters lived experience of paying more for grocery staples. The price of ground beef, for example, is up 18% since Mr. Trump took office a year ago, while ground coffee prices are up 29%.

Republican strategists told Reuters that his mixed messaging on the top issue for voter’s risks creating a credibility gap for him and the Republican Party ahead of the November midterms, when control of Congress will be at stake. Opinion polls show voters are deeply unhappy with Mr. Trump’s handling of the economy.

“He can’t continue to make claims that are demonstrably false, particularly at the expense of Republicans who are in competitive House districts or Senate races,” said Rob Godfrey, a Republican strategist. Mr. Trump “must be disciplined and focused,” he added.

One source close to the White House said the President needed to hit the issue of affordability harder and through personal visits to critical districts. “He needs to bring the message out because the message is not resonating,” the source said, speaking on condition of anonymity to more freely discuss the issue.

Kush Desai, a White House spokesman, said Mr. Trump’s focus on illegal immigration in his speeches is directly connected to his argument that people in the country illegally have an adverse impact on the economy. Mr. Desai said it causes “public services being overburdened, business activity disrupted by crime, housing markets flooded, and workers’ wages depressed.”

“Trump has repeatedly stressed that much work remains to clean up the economic mess he says his Democratic predecessor, Joe Biden, left him,” Mr. Desai added.

Trump veers off message to rail about immigration

The Reuters analysis found that Mr. Trump – when not declaring inflation beaten – devoted nearly half his speaking time to grievances ⁠and other issues. In about five hours of speaking time, he spent roughly two hours straying into about 20 topics unrelated to prices, the Reuters review found. When he veered off message, his top issue was illegal immigration, which he spent a total of about 30 to 40 minutes talking about. In the speeches he insulted Somali Americans in Minnesota, who voted against him in the 2024 election. He referred to Somalia as “not even a country” – and in four speeches he disparaged Somali-born Minnesota congresswoman Ilhan Omar.

A progressive, high-profile Democrat and Muslim, Ms. Omar has been a frequent Mr. Trump critic, especially over his immigration policies. “Every time the President of the United States has chosen to use hateful rhetoric to talk about me and ⁠the community that I represent, my death threats skyrocket,” Ms. Omar said last month, the day after a man sprayed a foul-smelling liquid on her at a town hall event.

Mr. Trump also talked about men in women’s sports, Venezuela, Iran, the Islamic State militant group, Greenland, Ukraine and Russia, military recruitment, his false claim that the 2020 election was rigged, U.S. weaponry, his exaggerated claim to have ended eight wars, and even how much a Fox News anchor likes him.

Trump’s meandering worries strategists

“Inflation is stopped. Incomes are up. Prices are down,” Mr. Trump said in an Iowa speech on January 27.

Only twice in the five speeches did Mr. Trump acknowledge that prices are still too high, but he blamed them on Mr. Biden. ‌Mr. Trump was elected in 2024 because of voter unhappiness with Mr. Biden’s handling of inflation – which spiked to over 9% in 2022 – and illegal immigration.

Democrats caused prices “to be too high,” Mr. Trump told a rally in Pennsylvania on December 9. “But ‌now they’re coming down.” In the same speech he called the term “affordability” a Democratic “hoax”. After a public backlash, he has ceased saying that in more recent speeches.

In four of the speeches Mr. Trump repeatedly and haphazardly switches topics, often when he is in the middle of talking about the economy, the Reuters review found. Four Republican strategists interviewed by Reuters said Mr. Trump’s meandering style – which he proudly calls “the weave” – risked drowning ‍out his core economic argument that he has brought inflation and prices down.

Speaking to world leaders at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on January 21, Mr. Trump spent the first 22 minutes on topic, then suddenly, for the next 22 minutes, insulted Europeans, said they would be speaking German if it wasn’t for America, called NATO ungrateful, and decried the “crooked” media before pivoting back to the U.S. economy.

Doug Heye, a Republican strategist, said voters want to hear what Mr. Trump is doing to lower costs. “But they have no ‍memory of what Mr. Trump says about economic issues because of the volume of his own rhetoric.”

One source familiar with the White House’s thinking said Mr. Trump was likely to use his State of the Union address on February 24 as the kick-off for more intense domestic travel to amplify his message on affordability.

Ttump does offer solutions

For many Americans, the economy still feels unforgiving. Prices remain high, even though the inflation rate has inched down since Mr. Trump took office, from 3% to 2.7%. A lower inflation rate does not mean prices are decreasing – just that they are growing at a slower pace, economists stress. In the 12 months through December 2025, food costs were up over 3%, while average hourly earnings were up only 1.1% year over year. The unemployment rate was 4.4% in December, up from 4% when Mr. Trump took office in January 2025, according to government data.

In some of the speeches Mr. Trump correctly identifies a drop in prices for a few everyday goods, including eggs and gas. The cost of eggs fell about 21% in December from a year earlier after being 60% higher during Mr. Trump’s first months back in office. Gas prices are about 4% lower since January last year.

But the cost of an average grocery basket has risen. The price of coffee, beef, and some fruits, among other items, has risen in the past year.

Mr. Trump does offer solutions in his speeches, including his tax cuts that kicked in last month that will produce greater savings for tens of millions of families; the scrapping of taxes on tips, overtime and Social Security payments; ⁠his plan to reduce mortgage interest rates; a proposal to lower housing prices; and deals with health insurance companies to reduce drug prices. Most economists expect U.S. households and the economy at large to benefit in the months ahead from the tax cuts. But Mr. Trump’s more recent proposals are unlikely to have a significant impact on the cost of living between now and November, some economists told Reuters.

One of Mr. Trump’s ideas – to cap credit card interest rates to 10% for a year – could even backfire since it could limit access to credit for lower-income families, some economists have warned.

Mike Marinella, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, which supports candidates for the House of ⁠Representatives, said Mr. Trump and Republicans were helping working families. “Voters are seeing this clear contrast, and the best is yet to come,” she said.

Some 35% of Americans approve of Mr. Trump’s overall handling of the economy, according to a January 25 Reuters/Ipsos poll, up slightly from 33% in December. But it is well below his initial 42% rating on the issue when he first took office a year ago.

Falling into Biden trap

Former economic officials in previous administrations say Mr. Trump is falling into the same trap Mr. Biden did in 2024 when confronted with persistently high inflation.

Mr. Biden kept claiming the U.S. economy was strong and urged voters to look at other economic data. That strategy failed badly and Democrats were punished at the polls.

The officials agreed it was important for Presidents to show voters they understood their economic pain, especially in an election year.

“We definitely talked past people on inflation,” Jared Bernstein, the head of Mr. Biden’s Council of Economic Advisers, said ⁠in an interview.

“What we typically did was to say, ‘A new report just came out on jobs, it’s very strong,’ and that was all true. But the fact is that there wasn’t much we were able to do in terms of the price level,” he said.