2025 NASCAR at Talladega odds, prediction, props, best bets: Surprising picks by model that nailed 20 winners

Talladega Superspeedway is one of the crown jewels of NASCAR, and the 2.667-mile oval will host the 2025 Jack Link’s 500 on Sunday. The Cup Series just had a week off, but Kyle Larson took the checkered flag when NASCAR last went racing in Bristol. The latest 2025 Jack Link’s 500 odds from DraftKings Sportsbook list 13 drivers with Talladega NASCAR odds of +2000 or lower, including Larson at +1400. Ryan Blaney is a former NASCAR Cup Series champion and a three-time winner at Talladega, which is why he is the +850 favorite in the 2025 NASCAR at Talladega odds, followed by Joey Logano (+1200), Austin Cindric (+1300), and Brad Keselowski (+1400).

The green flag drops at 3 p.m. ET on Sunday and the race is scheduled for 188 laps around the iconic track. Before entering any 2025 Jack Link’s 500 picks, NASCAR DFS lineups on sites like DraftKings and FanDuel, or locking in NASCAR props on sites like PrizePicks, Sleeper Fantasy, and Underdog Fantasy, be sure to see the latest 2025 NASCAR at Talladega predictions from SportsLine’s proven projection model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

The model began its 2025 season by calling Chase Elliott to win for a +300 payout at the Clash at Bowman Gray and was also high on Byron as a +2000 longshot at Daytona. Then it predicted Kyle Larson’s win in Miami for a +350 payout. In 2024, it nailed Larson to win in Las Vegas for a 21-5 sports betting payout and predicted Denny Hamlin’s wins in Bristol at 5-1 and Richmond at 17-4.

It also impressively nailed five of Larson’s wins during his historic season in 2021. All told, the model has nailed a whopping 20 winners since 2021, including nine in 2023 and three in the first seven races last season. Anyone who followed its lead on betting apps and sportsbooks on those NASCAR picks could have seen huge returns.

Now, the model simulated the Jack Link’s 500 2025 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected NASCAR at Talladega leaderboard.

Top 2025 Jack Link’s 500 predictions

For the 2025 Jack Link’s 500, we can tell you the model is high on Chase Elliott, even though he’s a +2000 longshot in the latest 2025 NASCAR at Talladega odds. The 2020 NASCAR Cup Series champion has 19 wins in Cup races and two came at Talladega: the 2019 GEICO 500 and the 2022 YellaWood 500. He’s posted five top-10 finishes this season and is currently fifth in the NASCAR standings.

Earlier this season at the Daytona 500, the only other superspeedway race so far, Elliott started middle of the pack (17th) and finished middle of the pack (15th). However, he did lead two laps and collected eight stage points for a third-place finish in the second stage. He’ll look to fine-tune that superspeedway setup heading into the weekend and is looking undervalued. He’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday, and DraftKings, Caesars and BetMGM are all offering the same price on Elliott to win.

The model has also revealed a shocking NASCAR prop for Sunday: Kyle Larson stays hot and finishes top five for a +225 payout at the iconic superspeedway. Larson’s 25 victories since the start of 2021 are the most of any driver in the NASCAR Cup Series and he’s also finished top five in 68 of his 152 starts during that span. That includes a fourth-place finish in his last start at Talladega in the 2024 YellaWood 500.

With a 44.7% top-five rate over the last five seasons and odds that suggest he only finishes top five 30.8% of the time, it’s easy to see the value here. That’s why the model likes adding him to your NASCAR at Talladega prop bets or to spice up your NASCAR parlays this week. BetMGM Sportsbook has the best price for the Kyle Larson top-five prop. See which other drivers to avoid and the rest of the projected NASCAR leaderboard at SportsLine.

How to make 2025 NASCAR at Talladega picks

The model is also targeting two other drivers with Talladega NASCAR odds of 16-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model’s NASCAR picks, props, and projected leaderboard over at SportsLine.

So who wins the NASCAR Jack Link’s 500 2025, and which longshots are must-backs? Check out the latest 2025 NASCAR at Talladega odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full NASCAR Bristol projected leaderboard, all from the model that has nailed 20 winners, and find out.

2025 NASCAR Talladega odds, drivers, lineup

See the full NASCAR at Talladega picks at SportsLine

Ryan Blaney +850
Brad Keselowski +1000  
Joey Logano +1000  
Kyle Busch +1100
William Byron +1200
Kyle Larson +1400
Denny Hamlin +1400
Tyler Reddick +1600
Christopher Bell +1600
Chase Briscoe +1600
Austin Cindric +1600
Chase Elliott +1600
Bubba Wallace +2000
Alex Bowman +2000
Michael McDowell +2200
Todd Gilliland +2500
Ross Chastain +2800
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +2800
Chris Buescher +3000
Ty Dillon +3500
Ty Gibbs +4000
Josh Berry +4000
Erik Jones +4000
Daniel Suarez +4000
Carson Hocevar +4000
Ryan Preece +4500
Austin Dillon +4500
Noah Gragson +5500
Justin Haley +5500
AJ Allmendinger +5500
Cole Custer +6500
Zane Smith +7000
Riley Herbst +7000
John Hunter Nemechek +7000
Shane Van Gisbergen +8000
Anthony Alfredo +10000
JJ Yeley +13000
Cody Ware +13000
BJ McLeod +13000