The View from India newsletter: What is happening in Iran?

(This article is part of the View From India newsletter curated by The Hindu’s foreign affairs experts. To get the newsletter in your inbox every Monday, subscribe here.)

Iran is no stranger to crises. A year after the 1979 revolution, Iraq invaded, triggering a disastrous war that lasted for eight years. For decades since, the country has lived under stringent western sanctions. In recent years, it has faced waves of anti-government protests, while Israel has carried out multiple clandestine attacks on Iranian soil, targeting its nuclear sector and scientists. Although Tehran reached a landmark agreement with the international community in 2015 over its nuclear programme, Donald Trump unilaterally pulled the U.S. out of the deal in 2018 and reimposed sanctions. In June 2025, Israel and the U.S. bombed Iran. And now, the Iranian state faces another major challenge: protests sparked by traders’ strike over hyperinflation and the falling currency have spread nationwide and turned violent.

According to Western-based rights groups, the government launched a bloody crackdown on the protests on Saturday night, leaving hundreds dead. It is difficult to independently verify the figures as most reports are filed from outside Iran. State media has described the protesters as “rioters” and “terrorists”. But given the scale and persistence of the unrest and the response of the authorities, including a days-long internet shutdown, as well statements from senior leaders, it’s evident that these protests rank among the largest challenges the Islamic Republic has faced.

The roots of the public anger lies in their economic woes. Both the U.S. and Europe have tightened the screws Iran in recent years. Europe reimposed snapback sanctions late last year accusing Iran of violating the 2015 nuclear deal, which Mr. Trump had abandoned in 2018. In October, food inflation hit 64%, the second highest after South Sudan, according to the World Bank. The rial, the national currency, has lost 60% of its value since the June war, while oil exports in 2025 fell by about 7% from its 2024 average. Power outages have become a daily reality. The severity of the crisis was underscored in December when President Masoud Pezeshkian, a reformist who won 16 million votes in the 2024 presidential election, said his government was “stuck” and could not perform “miracles” to fix the problems.

When the protests broke out two weeks ago, the Iranian authorities responded with caution. They promised to address the traders’ concerns, but warned against “rioters”. Then Mr. Trump said, after meeting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the U.S. was “locked and loaded” to respond if Iran killed protesters. Mossad, Israel’s spy agency, kept amplifying anti-government messages in Farsi. In one social media post, Mossad urged the protesters to hit the street, saying “we are with you in the field”.In the subsequent days, protests escalated leading to Saturday’s crackdown.

A UN official based in Tehran told this writer that there is genuine discontent among Iranians about the economic situation. Unlike the Mahsa Amini protests of 2022 (which was triggered by the custodial death of the 22-year-old girl who was detained for not wearing the headscarf “properly”), this time, economic pain is driving the resentment, which is a matter of worry for the government, said the UN official. The official also said that there were incidents of violence by protesting gangs in several parts of the country, and security personnel also got killed. The state still has strong pockets of support, which cannot be underestimated, said the official, while agreeing that the protests were the biggest Iran has seen in recent years. In the 2024 elections, 13 million people voted for Saeed Jalili, the conservative candidate. This base is the hard core supporters of the government.

On January 13, two days after the crackdown, pro-government rallies flooded the streets of Tehran. Among those who joined the rally was President Pezeshkian. Protesters chanted “Death to America’ and ‘Death to Israel, while Mr. Trump said he was looking at various options to respond to Iran’s crackdown.

While the full facts of the crisis are yet to emerge, it is clear that the Iranian regime is under severe pressure. Iran has faced internal unrest and external threats in the past, but this may be the first time it is confronting both simultaneously at this scale. The government is trying to put down the unrest, mobilise public support through rallies and brace itself for the next round of external aggression. Donald Trump, who had threatened to use force, is in the meantime weighing his options.

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