2025 was third warmest on record, says European research institute

Global surface temperature in 2025 was lower than in 2023 and 2024 but the three-year average rise in temperatures – for the first time ever – exceeded 1.5 degree Celsius, the stretch-target of the Paris Agreement, according to data made public on Wednesday (January 14, 2026) by the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMRWF), an intergovernmental research institute in Europe.

Nations agreed in 2015 to moderate greenhouse gas emissions to keep temperatures from exceeding 2°C above pre-industrial levels and ‘as far as possible’ below 1.5°C. Achieving the latter meant ensuring that by 2030, global emissions declined 43% of 2010 levels. However, global emissions have risen 7% over 2010 levels, a reason why climate scientists over the years have warned that the 1.5°C mark will soon be breached.

The ECMRWF’s Copernicus dataset, which comprises satellite and surface-based measurements of sea and land temperatures, is an authoritative data used by policymakers and scientists globally.

The global average temperature in 2025 was 14.97°C, 0.13°C below 2024, the warmest year on record. The year 2025 was the third warmest on record, only marginally (0.01°C) cooler than 2023, and 0.13°C cooler than 2024 – the warmest year ever. The past 11 years have been the 11 warmest on record.

In 2025, the global surface air temperature was 1.47°C above the pre-industrial level, following 1.60°C in 2024. Based on the current rate of warming, the Paris Agreement’s limit of 1.5°C for long-term global warming could be reached by the end of this decade – over a decade earlier than predicted at the time the agreement was signed, an accompanying press statement added.

The last three years (2023-2025) were “exceptionally warm” for two main reasons. The first is the build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, from continued emissions and reduced uptake of carbon dioxide by natural sinks. Secondly, sea-surface temperatures reached exceptionally high levels across the ocean, due to an El Niño event and other ocean variability factors, amplified by climate change. Additional factors include changes in the amounts of aerosols, low clouds, and variations in atmospheric circulation.

Heat stress

In 2025, half of the global land area experienced more days of heat stress – defined as a ‘feels-like’ temperature of 32°C or above. Heat stress is recognised by the World Health Organisation as the leading cause of global weather-related deaths.

“Atmospheric data from 2025 paints a clear picture: human activity remains the dominant driver of the exceptional temperatures we are observing….The atmosphere is sending us a message, and we must listen,” Laurence Rouil, Director of Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service at ECMWF, said in a statement.

The year 2025 was also when coal power generation fell in both China and India, the first simultaneous drop in half a century, after each nation added record amounts of clean energy, according to an analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. Electricity generation from coal in India fell by 3.0% year-on-year (57 terawatt hours) and in China by 1.6% (58TWh). Coal is the main source of electricity in both these countries, which are the number one (China) and number three (India) source of global carbon emissions.